2024 Presidential Candidates’ Stances on the Future of U.S. Trade
October 30, 2024 – With less than a week before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, the trade community is preparing for the trade policy strategies of a potential Harris Administration or another Trump Administration.
KPMG recently released a side-by-side report on the anticipated trade approaches of a Harris or Trump administration, focusing on their priorities regarding China policy, tariffs, sanctions, and trade agreements.
China and Tariffs
Harris Administration
– Maintain existing tariffs (Sec. 201, 301, and 232) on Chinese goods.
– “De-risk” from China through domestic programs and trade agreements.
Trump Administration
– Impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially up to 60%.
– “Decouple” from China, phasing out essential imports.
Support for U.S. Manufacturing
Harris Administration
– Encourage U.S. manufacturing, particularly in renewable energy (CHIPS Act, Inflation Reduction Act).
– Support Southeast Asia trade agreements.
Trump Administration
– Focus on U.S. self-reliance by limiting imports, especially from China.
Trade Agreements
Harris Administration
– Emphasize multilateral frameworks like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
– Strengthen trade with allies (e.g., U.S.-Taiwan agreement).
Trump Administration
– Prioritize bilateral trade agreements over multilateral partnerships.
Sanctions
Harris Administration
– Increase and refine sanctions targeting Russian economic interests and allies.
Trump Administration
– No specified changes; past focus was mainly on China and North Korea sanctions.
Forced Labor
Harris Administration
– Expand import restrictions on goods linked to forced labor in regions like Xinjiang and other countries.
Trump Administration
– No specified stance; likely to continue enforcement but with less emphasis on expansion.
De Minimis
Harris Administration
– Tighten de minimis exemption rules similar to the Biden Administration’s proposed changes.
Trump Administration
– Likely to support even stricter de minimis rules to prevent duty-free entry from China.
China's Most Favored Nation Status
Harris Administration
– Maintain China’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status.
Trump Administration
– Propose revoking China’s MFN status to further restrict trade.
Both candidates’ strategies include a continued focus on domestic manufacturing and supply chain security, but their methods differ sharply in scope and execution.
AAEI will be hosting a webinar on the Post Election Outlook. Check for updates in our Weekly Comprehensive member emails.
If you have questions or concerns, please email Government Affairs Manager Mitchell Hart.